How Lucky We’ve Been

Thirty-seven years ago, one man probably saved the world as we know it. We may all owe him our lives. But don’t take our word for it. Google Lieutenant Colonel Stanislav Petrov. Or read it here first if you wish.

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Colonel Stanislav Petrov

Colonel Petrov was duty officer at the Soviet Air Defense Forces Nuclear Early Warning Command Center in the early morning hours of September 26, 1983. Suddenly, multiple piercing alarms sounded. The center’s instruments showed something incredible. America had launched a ballistic missile attack against the Soviet Union.

Colonel Petrov’s duty was clear. Before him was a telephone, a direct line to his superior officers. He reached for it, then hesitated. Why only a few missiles? If America was starting World War III wouldn’t they launch everything they had? Limit Soviet retaliation as much as possible?

But such questions were not his to ask. Petrov was already disobeying orders by hesitating. Yet he couldn’t pick up the phone. The military officer in him knew all too well what would happen if he did. Soviet protocol at the time called for an all-out counterstrike upon first warning.

It’s fortunate for all of us that Stanislav Petrov never reported the attack his equipment claimed was happening. Investigation later revealed that a nuclear early warning satellite had issued false alarms.

Even though a civilization-ending nuclear war was avoided, the incident begs a huge question:

ARE WE CRAZY?

How did we get ourselves into a situation where something like that was even remotely possible in the first place?

Unfortunately, the incident was not an isolated, one-time affair. Picture yourself in the room:

A training program meant to simulate a major nuclear attack is accidently loaded into a computer at North American Aerospace Defense Command. NORAD’s system responds as it should, indicating hundreds of incoming ICBMs. Other military command centers confirm the attack. To personnel on duty it was the real thing.

Absolute panic broke out. ICBMs prepared for launch. The President’s National Security Advisor awoke to a phone call in the middle of the night stating that hundreds of ICBMs were incoming. The President had only moments to order a counterstrike before the White House was destroyed.

But then someone noticed that incoming missiles weren’t registering on radars. A false alarm was eventually declared, and heartbeats slowly returned to normal.

BUT HOLY SMOKES! STANISLAV PETROV MUST HAVE KNOWN THE FEELING.

Protocol was changed and the system declared trustworthy again. But similar events happened less than a year later. Nuclear weapons prepared once more for war. The new false alarms were eventually traced to a faulty 46-cent computer chip instead of an accidental training program. It seems like a comment is called for at this point but what would it be? The hair raising nature of those events speak for themselves. Then in 1983, the Soviet Union nearly launched a nuclear first strike against America and its allies after mistaking a military exercise for the start of a real invasion. Once again, one man may have saved civilization and the life of nearly everyone on earth.

HOW LONG CAN LUCK LIKE THAT HOLD?

Many disturbing incidents and accidents involving nuclear weapons are explored in the Foundation’s new book, ‘ROLLING THE DICE WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS: The Illusion of Control and the Path Forward.’

[Donate to get the book and spread the word]

Skeptics point-out that most nuclear close-calls happened during the Cold War, which is over now. That is true.

But what about the Norwegian Rocket Incident?

In 1995, American and Norwegian scientists launched a rocket off the coast of Norway to study the Northern Lights. Tensions between the US and Russia were the at lowest point in history. But Russian radar operators mistook the rocket for a Trident ballistic missile launched at Moscow from a US Navy submarine in the Barents Sea. A nuclear war might start with a single thermonuclear warhead designed to generate an electromagnetic pulse, blinding early-warning systems to the main strike.

Russian President Boris Yeltsin activated his mobile nuclear command center with ten minutes to impact. ICBMs readied for launch. Ballistic missile submarines prepared to attack. Eight minutes passed before Yeltsin received word of a false alarm and stood down.

TWO MINUTES TO ARMAGEDDON! TALK ABOUT ROLLING THE NUCLEAR DICE!

We can’t go on this way..